This report should not be construed as providing investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult a investment professional.
Estimates Estimates Estimates
See my website on stocks or see my blog at the following sites. www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html www.spbrunner.blogspot.com/ Q3 2016
Northland Power Inc. TSX: NPI OTC: NPIFF www.northlandpower.ca Fiscal Yr: Dec 31
Year 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 12/31/09 12/31/10 12/31/11 12/31/12 12/31/13 12/31/14 12/31/15 12/31/16 12/31/17 12/31/18 Value Description #Y Item
Accounting Rules C GAAP IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS
$792.1 <-12 mths 8.78%
Revenue* $90.9 $128.2 $164.8 $184.3 $192.2 $193.4 $304.2 $356.2 $362.3 $557.2 $760.1 $728.1 $999 $1,167 $1,553 468.07% <-Total Growth 10 Revenue
Increase -0.21% 40.95% 28.56% 11.83% 4.27% 0.63% 57.30% 17.11% 1.71% 53.80% 36.40% -4.20% 37.20% 16.82% 33.08% 18.97% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue
5 year Running Average $76.9 $90.2 $109.5 $131.9 $152.1 $172.6 $207.8 $246.0 $281.6 $354.7 $468.0 $552.8 $681.4 $842.3 $1,041.4 19.07% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue
Revenue per Share $1.90 $2.59 $2.64 $2.96 $3.08 $2.56 $2.98 $2.96 $3.01 $4.19 $5.05 $4.27 $5.85 $6.84 $9.10 19.88% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average
Increase -23.01% 36.63% 1.95% 11.80% 4.27% -16.98% 16.42% -0.54% 1.75% 39.01% 20.59% -15.56% 37.20% 16.82% 33.08% 21.62% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average
5 year Running Average $2.19 $2.30 $2.39 $2.51 $2.63 $2.77 $2.84 $2.91 $2.92 $3.14 $3.64 $3.90 $4.48 $5.24 $6.22 5.11% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue per Share
P/S (Price/Sales) Med 6.44 5.13 5.35 4.31 3.73 4.18 4.82 5.57 5.99 4.04 3.28 3.97 3.60 0.00 0.00 7.45% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue per Share
P/S (Price/Sales) Close 7.45 5.75 4.94 4.14 3.76 4.67 5.26 6.05 6.19 3.69 3.03 4.37 3.96 3.39 2.55 5.40% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average
*Revenue in M CDN $ P/S Med 10 yr 4.24 5 yr 4.04 -6.76% Diff M/C 6.51% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average
-$128.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $728.1
-$304.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $728.1
-$90.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $552.8
-$207.8 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $552.8
-$2.59 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $4.27
-$2.98 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $4.27
-$2.30 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.90
-$2.84 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.90
Distributable Cash $1.06 $1.36 $1.19 $1.46 $1.36 $1.09 $0.88 $0.78 $0.57 -100.00% <-Total Growth 7 Distributable Cash
* Distributable cash per share, Diluted (cannot find for 2011)
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.78
-$1.19 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.78
-$0.28 <-12 mths -300.00%
EPS Basic $0.57 $0.91 $0.58 -$0.44 $1.04 $0.47 $0.05 -$0.61 -$0.18 $1.08 -$0.82 -$0.07 -107.69% <-Total Growth 10 EPS Basic
EPS Diluted* $0.55 $0.87 $0.58 -$0.44 $1.02 $0.47 $0.05 -$0.61 -$0.18 $1.03 -$0.82 -$0.07 $0.41 $0.61 $1.26 -108.05% <-Total Growth 10 EPS Diluted
Increase 7.84% 58.18% -33.33% -175.86% -331.82% -53.92% -89% -1320% -70.49% -672.22% -179.61% -91.46% -685.71% 48.78% 106.56% #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 10 Earnings per Share -108.05%
Earnings Yield 3.89% 5.84% 4.44% -3.59% 8.79% 3.94% 0.32% -3.40% -0.96% 6.65% -5.36% -0.38% 1.77% 2.63% 5.44% #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 Earnings per Share -240.00%
5 year Running Average $0.59 $0.64 $0.63 $0.41 $0.52 $0.50 $0.34 $0.10 $0.15 $0.15 -$0.11 -$0.13 $0.07 $0.23 $0.28 #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average -120.19%
10 year Running Average $0.58 $0.51 $0.56 $0.55 $0.49 $0.36 $0.28 $0.33 $0.20 $0.10 $0.09 $0.19 $0.22 #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average -138.69%
* Diluted ESP per share E/P 10 Yrs -0.03% 5Yrs -0.96%
-$0.87 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.07
-$0.05 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.07
-$0.64 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.13
-$0.34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.13
Special Dividends $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 <-Median-> 10 Special Dividends
Dividend* $1.00 $1.05 $1.05 $1.08 $1.12 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 2.61% <-Total Growth 10 Dividends
Increase 2.30% 4.99% -0.71% 3.35% 3.70% -3.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Count 19 Years of data
Dividends 5 Yr Running $0.98 $1.00 $1.01 $1.03 $1.06 $1.08 $1.08 $1.09 $1.09 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 8.11% <-Total Growth 10 Dividends 5 Yr Running
Yield H/L Price 8.20% 7.92% 7.39% 8.48% 9.73% 10.09% 7.52% 6.54% 5.98% 6.39% 6.52% 6.37% 5.13% 6.96% <-Median-> 10 Yield H/L Price
Yield on High Price 7.02% 6.76% 6.30% 8.05% 8.35% 9.05% 6.72% 6.02% 5.58% 5.48% 5.83% 5.64% 4.31% 6.16% <-Median-> 10 Yield on High Price
Yield on Low Price 9.87% 9.54% 8.93% 8.96% 11.68% 11.42% 8.54% 7.15% 6.46% 7.66% 7.38% 7.32% 6.33% 8.10% <-Median-> 10 Yield on Low Price
Yield on Close Price 7.09% 7.06% 8.00% 8.82% 9.66% 9.05% 6.90% 6.02% 5.78% 6.98% 7.06% 5.79% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 7.02% <-Median-> 10 Yield on Close Price
Payout Ratio EPS 182.27% 120.98% 180.17% -245.45% 109.80% 229.79% 2160% -177.05% -600.00% 104.85% -131.71% -1542.86% 263.41% 177.05% 85.71% -13.43% <-Median-> 10 DPR EPS
DPR EPS 5 Yr Running 165.07% 155.12% 161.66% 249.28% 205.43% 215.10% 321.73% 1110.20% 725.33% 710.53% -1018.87% -830.77% 1459.46% 465.52% 388.49% 232.19% <-Median-> 10 DPR EPS 5 Yr Running
Payout Ratio CFPS 101.32% 93.53% 92.31% -71.57% 67.96% 126.39% 123.02% 101.87% 80.28% 55.87% 45.00% 46.22% 50.23% 50.70% 35.41% 74.12% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF
DPR CF 5 Yr Running 100.08% 94.72% 94.27% 181.46% 156.53% 165.41% 179.96% 185.56% 94.02% 88.95% 70.90% 59.50% 53.12% 49.32% 44.75% 125.40% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF 5 Yr Running
Payout Ratio CFPS WC 93.14% 78.64% 90.51% 68.24% 76.32% 103.98% 123.56% 91.08% 74.27% 54.19% 45.71% 47.45% 50.23% 50.70% 35.41% 75.29% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF WC
DPR CF WC 5 Yr Running 97.19% 91.89% 90.60% 84.25% 80.07% 81.70% 88.35% 88.47% 90.36% 82.50% 68.62% 58.24% 52.76% 49.49% 45.12% 83.37% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF WC 5 Yr Running
Median Values 5 Yr Med 5 Yr Cl 6.39% 6.02% 5 Yr Med Payout -177.05% 55.87% 54.19% 0.26% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Dividends
* Dividends per share 5 Yr Med and Cur. -27.02% -22.62% Last Div Inc ---> $0.09 $0.09 0.0% 0.00% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Dividends
-$1.05 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.08
-$1.08 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.08
Historical Dividends Historical High Div 12.16% Low Div 5.58% Ave Div 8.87% Med Div 8.20% Close Div 7.65% Historical Dividends
High/Ave/Median Values Curr diff Exp. -61.67% Exp -16.47% Exp. -47.45% Exp. -43.16% Exp. -39.09% High/Ave/Median
Future Dividend Yield Div Yd 4.78% earning in 5 Years at IRR of 0.50% Div Inc. 2.53% Future Dividend Yield
Future Dividend Yield Div Yd 4.90% earning in 10 Years at IRR of 0.50% Div Inc. 5.11% Future Dividend Yield
Future Dividend Yield Div Yd 5.02% earning in 15 Years at IRR of 0.50% Div Inc. 7.77% Future Dividend Yield
Yield if held 5 yrs 10.93% 13.71% 10.17% 9.86% 10.14% 8.84% 8.12% 7.63% 8.48% 9.39% 10.09% 7.52% 6.54% 5.98% 6.39% 9.11% <-Median-> 10 Paid Median Price
Yield if held 10 yrs 10.80% 10.67% 11.77% 14.07% 10.51% 9.86% 9.77% 8.84% 8.12% 7.63% 8.48% 9.39% 10.51% <-Median-> 9 Paid Median Price
Yield if held 15 yrs 10.80% 10.29% 11.77% 14.07% 10.51% 9.86% 9.77% 11.29% <-Median-> 4 Paid Median Price
Yield if held 20 yrs 10.80% 10.29% #NUM! <-Median-> 0 Paid Median Price
Cost covered if held 5 years 53.43% 65.08% 49.25% 47.12% 47.96% 44.01% 40.65% 38.45% 42.73% 46.94% 50.47% 37.59% 32.70% 29.92% 31.93% 45.47% <-Median-> 10 Paid Median Price
Cost covered if held 10 years 98.90% 96.48% 112.04% 135.50% 102.19% 96.80% 96.83% 88.20% 81.27% 76.61% 85.15% 93.87% 96.83% <-Median-> 9 Paid Median Price
Cost covered if held 15 years 153.30% 147.90% 170.90% 205.86% 154.74% 146.12% 145.70% 162.10% <-Median-> 4 Paid Median Price
Cost covered if held 20 years 207.30% 199.33% #NUM! <-Median-> 0 Paid Median Price
Graham No. $9.73 $12.25 $10.54 $9.46 $12.45 $9.94 $2.72 $2.50 $2.03 $10.38 $0.92 $2.12 $5.55 $6.77 $9.73 -82.68% <-Total Growth 10 Graham Price
Price/GP Ratio Med 1.26 1.09 1.34 1.35 0.92 1.08 5.28 6.62 8.90 1.63 17.95 7.99 3.79 3.46 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio
Price/GP Ratio High 1.47 1.27 1.57 1.42 1.08 1.20 5.92 7.18 9.56 1.90 20.05 9.02 4.52 3.91 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio
Price/GP Ratio Low 1.04 0.90 1.11 1.27 0.77 0.95 4.65 6.05 8.25 1.36 15.85 6.95 3.07 3.01 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio
Price/GP Ratio Close 1.45 1.22 1.24 1.29 0.93 1.20 5.76 7.18 9.21 1.49 16.57 8.79 4.18 3.42 2.38 3.63 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio
Prem/Disc Close 45.25% 21.69% 23.95% 29.44% -6.81% 20.17% 476.07% 618.25% 821.08% 49.19% 1556.51% 779.19% 317.50% 242.28% 138.16% 262.63% <-Median-> 10 Graham Price
Price Close $14.14 $14.91 $13.07 $12.24 $11.60 $11.94 $15.66 $17.93 $18.67 $15.48 $15.29 $18.66 $23.17 $23.17 $23.17 25.15% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price
Increase 19.43% 5.45% -12.34% -6.35% -5.23% 2.93% 31.16% 14.50% 4.13% -17.09% -1.23% 22.04% 24.17% 0.00% 0.00% 2.27% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price
P/E 25.71 17.14 22.53 -27.82 11.37 25.40 313.20 -29.39 -103.72 15.03 -18.65 -266.57 56.51 37.98 18.39 3.57% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price
Trailing P/E 27.73 27.11 15.02 21.10 -26.36 11.71 33.32 358.60 -30.61 -86.00 14.84 -22.76 -331.00 56.51 37.98 8.91% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Dividend
Median 10, 5 Yrs D. per yr 6.64% 6.46% % Tot Ret 74.52% 64.44% Price Inc 4.13% P/E: -3.64 -29.39 10.03% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Dividend
-$14.91 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $18.66
-$15.66 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $18.66
-$14.91 $1.05 $1.08 $1.12 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $19.74
-$15.66 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $19.74
Price H/L Median $12.22 $13.30 $14.15 $12.73 $11.51 $10.70 $14.37 $16.52 $18.05 $16.91 $16.57 $16.96 $21.06 27.53% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price
Increase 10.59% 8.80% 6.43% -10.04% -9.62% -7.00% 34.25% 14.97% 9.29% -6.32% -2.01% 2.32% 24.21% 2.46% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price
P/E 22.22 15.28 24.40 -28.93 11.28 22.77 287.30 -27.07 -100.28 16.42 -20.21 -242.21 51.37 3.37% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price
Trailing P/E 23.96 24.17 16.26 21.95 -26.15 10.49 30.56 330.30 -29.59 -93.94 16.09 -20.68 -300.86 9.86% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Dividend
P/E on Run. 5 yr Ave 20.57 20.64 22.60 30.75 22.30 21.40 42.75 168.52 120.33 111.25 -156.32 -130.42 284.59 10.45% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Dividend
P/E on Run. 10 yr Ave 24.61 25.06 20.54 19.56 29.32 45.62 64.01 50.63 84.11 164.61 244.88 15.31 P/E Ratio Historical Median
Median 10, 5 Yrs D. per yr 7.40% 7.07% % Tot Ret 75.04% 67.73% Price Inc 2.32% P/E: -4.46 -27.07 Count 19 Years of data
-$13.30 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $16.96
-$14.37 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $16.96
-$13.30 $1.05 $1.08 $1.12 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $18.04
-$14.37 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $18.04
High Months Dec Dec Feb Jun Jun Dec Oct Oct Aug Jan Jul Dec Aug Stock Price
Price High $14.28 $15.56 $16.60 $13.41 $13.42 $11.94 $16.08 $17.93 $19.37 $19.72 $18.51 $19.15 $25.06 23.07% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price
Increase 20.51% 8.96% 6.68% -19.22% 0.07% -11.03% 34.67% 11.50% 8.03% 1.81% -6.14% 3.46% 30.86% 2.10% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price
P/E 25.96 17.89 28.62 -30.48 13.16 25.40 321.60 -29.39 -107.61 19.15 -22.57 -273.57 61.12 3.56% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price
Trailing P/E 28.00 28.29 19.08 23.12 -30.50 11.71 34.21 358.60 -31.75 -109.56 17.97 -23.35 -358.00 17.86 P/E Ratio Historical Median
Median 10, 5 Yrs Price Inc 3.46% P/E: -4.71 -29.39 25.52 P/E Ratio Historical High
-$15.56 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $19.15
-$16.08 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $19.15
Low Months Jun Oct Dec Nov Oct Jun May Aug Mar Sep Dec Aug Jan Stock Price
Price Low $10.16 $11.03 $11.70 $12.05 $9.59 $9.46 $12.65 $15.10 $16.73 $14.10 $14.63 $14.76 $17.06 33.82% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price
Increase -0.88% 8.56% 6.07% 2.99% -20.41% -1.36% 33.72% 19.37% 10.79% -15.72% 3.76% 0.89% 15.58% 2.96% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price
P/E 18.47 12.68 20.17 -27.39 9.40 20.13 253.00 -24.75 -92.94 13.69 -17.84 -210.86 41.61 3.13% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price
Trailing P/E 19.92 20.05 13.45 20.78 -21.80 9.27 26.91 302.00 -27.43 -78.33 14.20 -18.00 -243.71 12.94 P/E Ratio Historical Median
Median 10, 5 Yrs Price Inc 3.76% P/E: -4.22 -24.75 -25.28 P/E Ratio Historical Low
-$11.03 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $14.76
Long Term Debt $2,800.01 $4,758.04 $5,902.91 Debt
Change 69.93% 24.06%
Debt/Market Cap Ratio 1.22 1.49 1.49 <----- 1.36 <-Median-> 2 Debt/Market Cap Ratio
Goodwill & Intangibles $245.07 $249.53 $241.03 $222.57 $220.17 $219.24 $206.53 $206.53 Intangibles Goodwill
Intangible/Market Cap Ratio 0.27 0.16 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.06 0.05 0.11 <-Median-> 7 Intangible/Market Cap Ratio
Market Cap $678 $737 $815 $763 $723 $902 $1,599 $2,156 $2,244 $2,059 $2,300 $3,184 $3,954 $3,954 $3,954 332.04% <-Total Growth 10 Market Cap
Diluted 75.93 97.725 117.037 120.538 133.478 146.765 167.555 #DIV/0! <-Total Growth 6 Diluted
Change 28.71% 19.76% 2.99% 10.74% 9.95% 14.17% 12.45% <-Median-> 6 Change
Average # of Sh in M 47.92 48.55 59.31 62.35 62.35 75.69 97.73 117.037 120.538 126.719 146.765 167.555 245.12% <-Total Growth 10 Average
Change 29.62% 1.31% 22.16% 5.13% 0.00% 21.40% 29.11% 19.76% 2.99% 5.13% 15.82% 14.17% 14.99% <-Median-> 10 Change
Difference 0.0% 1.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% 4.5% 2.7% -0.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.8% 2.16% <-Median-> 10 Difference
$448.28 <-12 mths 12.42%
Convertible Class A 4.209 22.722 25.646 29.852 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Convertible Class A
Common Shares 71.371 75.035 78.027 86.042 131.979 149.410 169.645 169.645 Common Shares
# of Share in Millions 47.916 49.431 62.333 62.352 62.353 75.580 102.117 120.236 120.184 132.979 150.410 170.645 170.645 170.645 170.645 13.19% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Shares
Change 29.61% 3.16% 26.10% 0.03% 0.00% 21.21% 35.11% 17.74% -0.04% 10.65% 13.11% 13.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.82% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Shares
CF fr Op $M $47.4 $55.6 $70.6 $98.7 $102.8 $64.6 $89.6 $127.5 $161.7 $257.1 $361.0 $398.7 $366.9 $363.5 $520.5 616.83% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow
Increase 15.98% 17.33% 26.86% 39.85% 4.13% -37.15% 38.81% 42.19% 26.83% 59.01% 40.42% 10.46% -7.99% -0.93% 43.19% Deb Conv. S. Issued, DRIP SO Ex. Replacement R.
5 year Running Average $34.9 $41.4 $49.2 $62.6 $75.0 $78.4 $85.2 $96.6 $109.2 $140.1 $199.4 $261.2 $309.1 $349.4 $402.1 530.31% <-Total Growth 10 CF 5 Yr Running
CFPS $0.99 $1.13 $1.13 -$1.51 $1.65 $0.85 $0.88 $1.06 $1.35 $1.93 $2.40 $2.34 $2.15 $2.13 $3.05 107.65% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow per Share
Increase -10.52% 13.74% 0.60% -233.29% -209.21% -48.15% 2.74% 20.76% 26.89% 43.71% 24.14% -2.64% -7.99% -0.93% 43.19% 21.77% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow
5 year Running Average $0.98 $1.05 $1.07 $0.57 $0.68 $0.65 $0.60 $0.59 $1.16 $1.21 $1.52 $1.82 $2.03 $2.19 $2.41 34.78% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow
P/CF on Med Price 12.35 11.81 12.50 -8.44 6.98 12.52 16.36 15.58 13.42 8.75 6.90 7.26 7.58% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow per Share
P/CF on Closing Price 14.29 13.25 11.55 -8.11 7.04 13.97 17.84 16.91 13.88 8.01 6.37 7.99 10.78 21.63% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow per Share
1.45% Diff M/C 5.58% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CFPS 5 yr Running
Excl.Working Capital CF $4.2 $10.5 $1.4 $0.0 -$11.3 $13.9 -$0.4 $15.1 $13.1 $8.0 -$5.6 -$10.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 24.75% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS 5 yr Running
CF fr Op $M WC $51.6 $66.2 $72.0 $98.7 $91.5 $78.5 $89.3 $142.6 $174.8 $265.0 $355.4 $388.4 $366.9 $363.5 $520.5 487.07% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow less WC
Increase 43.44% 28.28% 8.78% 37.13% -7.28% -14.21% 13.70% 59.74% 22.58% 51.64% 34.09% 9.29% -5.53% -0.93% 43.19% 19.36% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow less WC
5 year Running Average $36.0 $43.4 $51.6 $64.9 $76.0 $81.4 $86.0 $100.1 $115.3 $150.0 $205.4 $265.2 $310.1 $347.8 $398.9 34.19% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow less WC
CFPS Excl. WC $1.08 $1.34 $1.15 $1.58 $1.47 $1.04 $0.87 $1.19 $1.45 $1.99 $2.36 $2.28 $2.15 $2.13 $3.05 19.85% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CF less WC 5 Yr Run
Increase 10.67% 24.35% -13.73% 37.09% -7.28% -29.23% -15.84% 35.66% 22.63% 37.05% 18.55% -3.67% -5.53% -0.93% 43.19% 25.27% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CF less WC 5 Yr Run
5 year Running Average $1.01 $1.09 $1.12 $1.22 $1.32 $1.32 $1.22 $1.23 $1.20 $1.31 $1.57 $1.85 $2.05 $2.18 $2.39 5.45% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CFPS - Less WC
P/CF on Med Price 11.35 9.93 12.26 8.04 7.84 10.30 16.43 13.93 12.41 8.48 7.01 7.45 21.09% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS - Less WC
P/CF on Closing Price 13.14 11.14 11.32 7.73 7.90 11.50 17.92 15.12 12.84 7.77 6.47 8.20 10.78 10.88 7.60 5.48% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CFPS 5 yr Running
*Operational Cash Flow CF/CF-WC P/CF Med 10 yr 10.62 5 yr 8.75 P/CF Med 10 yr 9.39 5 yr 8.48 14.73% Diff M/C 8.67% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS 5 yr Running
-$1.13 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.34 Cash Flow per Share
-$0.88 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.34 Cash Flow per Share
-$1.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1.8 CFPS 5 yr Running
-$0.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1.8 CFPS 5 yr Running
-$66.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $388.4 Cash Flow less WC
-$89.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $388.4 Cash Flow less WC
-$43.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $265.2 CF less WC 5 Yr Run
-$86.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $265.2 CF less WC 5 Yr Run
-$1.34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.28 CFPS - Less WC
-$0.87 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.28 CFPS - Less WC
OPM 52.13% 43.40% 42.82% 53.55% 53.48% 33.40% 29.47% 35.78% 44.62% 46.13% 47.49% 54.76% 26.19% <-Total Growth 10 OPM
Increase 16.22% -16.76% -1.33% 25.05% -0.14% -37.54% -11.75% 21.41% 24.70% 3.38% 2.95% 15.30% Should increase or be stable.
Diff from Median 14.9% -4.4% -5.6% 18.0% 17.8% -26.4% -35.1% -21.1% -1.7% 1.7% 4.7% 20.7% 0.00 <-Median-> 10 OPM
*Operational Profit Margin (CF/Revenue) Ratio OPM 10 Yrs 45.38% 5 Yrs 46.13% should be zero, it is a check on calculations
Current Assets $73.93 $48.40 $59.74 $77.98 $77.75 $203.08 $275.32 $203.74 $207.11 $363.45 $353.51 $593.29 $559.82 Liquidity ratio of 1.5 and up, best
Current Liabilities $17.90 $19.22 $29.29 $31.49 $31.15 $105.27 $140.82 $193.01 $144.39 $159.59 $484.60 $416.34 $507.41 1.94 <-Median-> 10 Ratio
Liquidity 4.13 2.52 2.04 2.48 2.50 1.93 1.96 1.06 1.43 2.28 0.73 1.43 1.10 1.43 <-Median-> 5 Ratio
Liq. with CF aft div 4.10 2.71 2.22 0.79 3.55 1.77 1.81 1.04 1.66 2.99 1.14 1.94 1.46 1.66 <-Median-> 5 Ratio
Liq. CF re Inv+Div 0.55 2.71 0.44 0.78 2.76 0.81 0.59 0.38 0.46 0.79 0.24 1.94 1.46 0.46 <-Median-> 5 Ratio
Assets $575.7 $548.9 $730.6 $690.8 $675.5 $1,695 $1,899 $2,254 $2,519 $3,040 $4,966 $7,366 $8,573 Debt Ratio of 1.5 and up, best
Liabilities $208.7 $169.7 $199.5 $263.5 $254.6 $989 $1,082 $1,442 $1,818 $2,087 $3,863 $5,959 $7,406 1.64 <-Median-> 10 Ratio
Debt Ratio 2.76 3.23 3.66 2.62 2.65 1.71 1.75 1.56 1.39 1.46 1.29 1.24 1.16 1.39 <-Median-> 5 Ratio
check on Sharehldr BV $879.5 $830.8 $993.2 $830.8
common shares -$53.10
Comm. Per share -$0.68
check tot liab $2,254 $2,519 $3,040 $4,966 $7,366 $8,573
Total Book Value $366.9 $379.1 $531.1 $427.3 $421.0 $705.6 $816.7 $812.0 $701.1 $952.7 $1,102.2 $1,407.1 $1,167.1 $1,167.1 $1,167.1 271.16% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value
NCI $0.0 $73.3 $271.4 $413.9 $336.3 $336.3 $336.3
Preferred Shares $145.9 $145.9 $262.2 $261.7 $261.3 $261.1 $261.1 $261.1 $261.1
Book Value $366.9 $379.1 $531.1 $427.3 $421.0 $705.6 $670.8 $666.0 $438.9 $617.7 $569.5 $732.1 $569.7 $569.72 $569.72 93.11% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value
Book Value per Share $7.66 $7.67 $8.52 $6.85 $6.75 $9.34 $6.57 $5.54 $3.65 $4.65 $3.79 $4.29 $3.34 $3.34 $3.34 -44.06% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value per Share
Change -26.98% 0.15% 11.09% -19.57% -1.48% 38.29% -29.64% -15.67% -34.07% 27.20% -18.49% 13.30% -22.18% 0.00% 0.00% 168.56% P/B Ratio Current/10 Year Median
P/B Ratio (Median) 1.60 1.73 1.66 1.86 1.70 1.15 2.19 2.98 4.94 3.64 4.38 3.95 6.31 1.66 P/B Ratio Historical Median
P/B Ratio (Close) 1.85 1.94 1.53 1.79 1.72 1.28 2.38 3.24 5.11 3.33 4.04 4.35 6.94 6.94 6.94 -5.64% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Book Value per Share -44.06%
Change 63.55% 5.29% -21.09% 16.44% -3.81% -25.57% 86.40% 35.78% 57.93% -34.82% 21.18% 7.72% 59.56% 0.00% 0.00% -8.17% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Book Value per Share -34.69%
Leverage (A/BK) 1.57 1.45 1.38 1.62 1.60 2.40 2.32 2.78 3.59 3.19 4.51 5.24 7.35 2.59 <-Median-> 10 A/BV
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.57 0.45 0.38 0.62 0.60 1.40 1.32 1.78 2.59 2.19 3.51 4.24 6.35 1.59 <-Median-> 10 Debt/Eq Ratio
Sharerholders Equity (Assets less liabilities) P/BV 10 yr Med 2.58 5 yr Med 3.95 168.56% Diff M/C 1.57 Historical Leverage (A/BK)
-$7.67 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $4.29
-$6.57 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $4.29
-$46.1 <-12 mths -190.39%
Comprehensive Income $166.21 -$234.26 $108.47
NCI $15.89 -$22.86 $57.52
Shareholders $34.29 -$27.18 $65.49 $34.64 $1.34 -$63.34 -$9.65 $150.32 -$211.40 $50.95 48.58% <-Total Growth 9 Comprehensive Income
Increase -179.27% 340.92% -47.11% -96.13% -4830.47% 84.77% 1658.20% -240.63% 124.10% 84.8% <-Median-> 5 Comprehensive Income
5 Yr Running Average $21.72 $2.19 $5.70 $22.66 -$26.55 -$16.62 4.50% <-IRR #YR-> 9 Comprehensive Income 48.58%
ROE 6.5% -6.4% 15.6% 4.9% 0.2% -7.8% -1.4% 15.8% -19.2% 3.6% 107.05% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Comprehensive Income 3705.38%
5Yr Median 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -1.4% -1.4% #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 Yr Running Average -176.55%
% Difference from NI 0.4% 0.0% 1.4% -1.8% -5.6% 0.4% -2.7% -0.6% 98.4% 4357.9% #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 Yr Running Average -176.55%
Median Values Diff 5, 10 yr 0.2% 0.4% -1.4% <-Median-> 5 Return on Equity
-$34.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $51.0
-$1.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $51.0
-$21.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 -$16.6
-$21.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 -$16.6
Return on Assets 4.7% 8.1% 4.7% -3.9% 9.6% 2.1% 0.1% -2.8% -0.4% 5.0% -2.1% 0.0% Net Income/Assets ROA
5Yr Median 5.9% 5.9% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% <-Median-> 5 ROA
ROE 7.4% 11.7% 6.4% -6.4% 15.3% 5.0% 0.2% -7.8% -1.4% 15.9% -9.7% 0.1% Net Inc/ Shareholders' equity ROE
5Yr Median 7.6% 8.4% 7.4% 6.4% 7.4% 6.4% 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -1.4% -1.4% -1.4% <-Median-> 5 ROE
-$61.3 <-12 mths -5460.19%
Net Income $167.02 -$177.5 $27.53
NCI $15.86 -$70.88 $26.39
Shareholders $27.14 $44.32 $34.15 -$27.19 $64.56 $35.26 $1.42 -$63.11 -$9.91 $151.16 -$106.6 $1.14 $25.0 $112.0 $230.0 -97.42% <-Total Growth 10 Net Income
Increase 44.29% 63.32% -22.95% -179.62% -337.43% -45.38% -95.98% -4551% -84.29% -1624.91% -170.50% -101.07% 2087.23% 348.00% 105.36% EPS/CF Ratio should not be higher than 1.00
5 Yr Running Average $20.94 $26.02 $28.72 $19.45 $28.60 $30.22 $21.64 $2.19 $5.64 $22.96 -$5.40 -$5.46 $12.16 $36.55 $52.31 -30.63% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Net Income -97.42%
Operating Cash Flow $47.41 $55.63 $70.57 $98.69 $102.76 $64.58 $89.65 $127.47 $161.68 $257.08 $361.0 $398.7 -4.22% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Net Income -19.39%
Investment Cash Flow -$114.45 $13.00 -$119.90 -$1.36 -$8.94 -$125.15 -$292.19 -$336.00 -$374.10 -$444.16 -$1,808.9 $73.5 #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 Yr Running Ave. -120.98%
Total Accruals $94.18 -$24.31 $83.48 -$124.52 -$29.26 $95.83 $203.95 $145.42 $202.51 $338.24 $1,341.3 -$471.1 #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 Yr Running Ave. -125.22%
Total Assets $576 $549 $731 $691 $676 $1,695 $1,899 $2,254 $2,519 $3,040 $4,966 $7,366 Balance Sheet Assets
Accruals Ratio 16.36% -4.43% 11.43% -18.03% -4.33% 5.66% 10.74% 6.45% 8.04% 11.13% 27.01% -6.40% 8.04% <-Median-> 5 Ratio
EPS/CF Ratio 0.51 0.65 0.50 -0.28 0.70 0.45 0.06 -0.51 -0.12 0.52 -0.35 -0.03 0.01 <-Median-> 10 EPS/CF Ratio
-$44.32 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.14
-$1.42 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.14
-$26.02 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$5.46
-$21.64 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$5.46
Chge in Close 19.43% 5.45% -12.34% -6.35% -5.23% 2.93% 31.16% 14.50% 4.13% -17.09% -1.23% 22.04% 24.17% 0.00% 0.00% Count 19 Years of data
up/down/neutral down down down up down down down down down down up Count 13 68.42%
Any Predictions? Yes Yes % right Count 2 15.38%
Financial Cash Flow $72.85 -$72.76 $48.32 -$82.38 -$76.99 $132.12 $198.34 $146.47 $195.27 $293.68 $1,524.02 $1,793.43 C F Statement Financial CF
Total Accruals $21.33 $48.46 $35.16 -$42.14 $47.73 -$36.29 $5.61 -$1.05 $7.24 $44.56 -$182.72 -$2,264.54 Accruals
Accruals Ratio 3.70% 8.83% 4.81% -6.10% 7.06% -2.14% 0.30% -0.05% 0.29% 1.47% -3.68% -30.74% -0.05% <-Median-> 5 Ratio
Cash $44.63 $116.85 $111.55 $49.51 $32.35 $138.46 $193.41 $151.93 $229.88 Cash
Cash per Share $0.72 $1.55 $1.09 $0.41 $0.27 $1.04 $1.29 $0.89 $1.35 $0.89 <-Median-> 5 Cash per Share
Percentage of Stock Price 6.17% 12.95% 6.98% 2.30% 1.44% 6.73% 8.41% 4.77% 5.81% 4.77% <-Median-> 5 % of Stock Price
Notes:
December 3, 2016. Last estiamtes were for 2015, 2016 and 2017 of $86.6M, $102M and $114M for Revenue, $1.06, $1.22 and $1.44 for EPS and $20.8M, $22.4M and $25.3M for Net Income.
For 2015, there is a small Net Income, but a EPS loss because of Preferred dividends taken off of Net Income to get Income for EPS calculations.
December 8, 2015. Last estimates were for 2014, 2015 and 2016 for $739M, $711M and $732M for Revenue, $0.34, $0.40 and $0.55 for EPS, $1.55, $1.73 and $1.86 for CFPS, $59M, $66.3M and $91.2M for Net Income.
November 23, 2014. Last estimates were for 2013, 2014 and 2015 of $504.3M, $637.2M and $658M for Revenue, $0.93, $0.53 and $0.79 for EPS, $1.41, $1.85 and $2.01 for CFPS.
November 10, 2013. Last Estimates were for 2012 and 2013 of $369M and $502M for Revenue, $.14 and $.35 for EPS.
Class B Exchangeable shares were reclassified as a liability on December 31, 2012.
Sep 28, 2012. Estimates for 2011 and 2012 were $331M and $410M for Revenue, $0.78 and $0.57 for DI and $0.36 and $0.30 for EPS and $1.05 and $1.07 for CF,
There seems to be some controversy about outstanding shares. I have included exchangeable shares in number of shares and a book value.
Class A Exchangeable Units or Replacement Rights are not entitled to any cash distributions until January 2012.
Ex-chairman James Temerty seems to own all or mostly all of the outstanding convertible shares.
In 2011 Northland Power Inc. (NPI) merged with Northland Power Income Fund. Class A shares and regular replacement rights became exchangeable into common shares.
Jul 2011. Management expects distributions to exceed 100% of Free Cash Flow until 2013.
Jan 2011. Company changed from an Income Trust (NPI.UN) to a Corporation 1 January 2011. Have a tax pool that should last until 2019.
I am looking at this stock as eventually, I want to get away from pipelines and into energy, especially renewable enery.
An initial instalment of $6 per Trust Unit was paid on April 15, 1997 and the final instalment of $4 per Trust Unit is due no later than April 15, 1998.
Sector:
Power, Utility
What should this stock accomplish?
As a Utility it should add stability to you portfolio.
Would I buy this company and Why.
I would not buy this company. It is not a dividend growth company. It really cannot afford the dividend it is paying.
Dividends
Dividends are paid monthly. Dividends are declared in one month for payment to shareholders of records of that month and then paid in the following month.
For example, Dividends declared in January 2013 for shareholders of records of January 31, 2013 and paid on February 15, 2013.
Why am I following this stock.
This company is into generating electric power. I have a lot invested in pipelines and I would like to have more invested in electric power as my utilities investment. I read a report on this stock that said it was a good
defensive stock to buy. That is, it is a good stock to hold in a stock market correction. I can certainly see the logic of using utility stocks as defensive stocks.
How they make their money.
Northland Power Inc. indirectly owns interests in power projects.
Northland's assets comprise facilities that produce electricity from "clean" natural gas and "green" renewable sources such as wind and biomass. Electricity generation is sold under long-term
PPAs with creditworthy customers, and any fuel for natural-gas-fired projects, where required, is purchased under long-term contracts to assure stability of operating margins.
This company operates in Canada, US and Germany.
For most ratios, lower is better when looking for a good stock price. However, there are exceptions such as for yield and asset/liability ratios and here you want a higher ratios to indicate a good stock price.
Also, for the Operational Profit Margin, a higher percentage is better. With the OPM, you should only compare companies in similar industries.
Shares; '%, Value $M Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M
Date Sep-28 2012 Nov 10 2013 Nov 23 2014 Dec 8 2015 Dec 4 2016
Brace, John Wycliffe 1.386 1.15% 1.834 1.38% 1.493 0.99% 1.502 0.88% 1.502 0.88%
CEO - Shares - Amount $25.880 $28.391 $22.835 $28.028 $34.802
Options - percentage 0.129 0.10% 0.012 0.01% 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00%
Options - amount $2.000 $0.180 $0.000 $0.000
Salary worth 2012 $0.507
Salary worth 2011 $2.673
Salary worth 2010 $0.514
Bradley, Paul 0.070 0.05% 0.057 0.04% 0.062 0.04% 0.062 0.04%
CFO - Shares - Amount $1.088 $0.866 $1.159 $1.439
Options - percentage 0.031 0.02% 0.008 0.01% 0.006 0.00% 0.006 0.00%
Options - amount $0.479 $0.130 $0.106 $0.131
Salary worth 2012 $0.415
Salary worth 2011 $0.804
Crawley, Mike 0.000 0.00% 0.021 0.01%
Officer - Shares - Amount $0.000 $0.490
Options - percentage 0.060 0.04% 0.040 0.02%
Options - amount $1.120 $0.927
Anderson, Anthony Frank 1.109 0.92% 1.467 1.10% 1.119 0.74%
Officer - Shares - Amount $20.713 $22.703 $17.106
Options - percentage 0.103 0.08% 0.009 0.01%
Options - amount $1.600 $0.144
Mantenuto, Salvatore 1.109 0.92% 1.024 0.68% 1.055 0.62% 0.000 0.00% Last filing in 2015 to 0
Officer - Shares - Amount $20.704 $15.657 $19.692 $0.000 Co Web site showed him??
Options - percentage 0.009 0.01% 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00%
Options - amount $0.144 $0.000 $0.000
Bertoldi, Linda Louise 0.010 0.01% 0.010 0.01% 0.013 0.01% 0.013 0.01%
Director - Shares - Amount $0.155 $0.153 $0.24 $0.301
Options - percentage 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00%
Options - amount $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 $0.000
Temerty, James C. 84.881 70.63% 87.379 58.09% 55.253 32.38% 56.222 32.95%
Chairman - Shares - Amt $1,584.736 $1,336.021 $1,031.03 $1,302.656
Class A - percentage 1.000 100.00% A
Class A - amount $23.170 A
Options - percentage 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00%
Options - amount $0.000 $0.00 $0.00
Increase in O/S Shares 0.055 0.04% 1.029 0.77% 0.633 0.42% 0.115 0.07% LTIP
due to SO $0.857 $15.936 $9.674 $2.151
Book Value $0.974 $15.061 $9.125 $1.638
Insider Buying -$8.923 -$10.822
Insider Selling $9.925 $1.002
Net Insider Selling $3.981 $1.002 -$9.820
% of Market Cap 0.17% 0.03% -0.25%
Annual Stement 39.00%
says mge ownership
Directors 7 7 7 6
Women 1 14% 2 29% 2 29% 2 33%
Minorities 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Institutions/Holdings 2 0.55% 53 20.96% 12 16.34% 80 26.90% 5 8.63%
Total Shares Held 0.033 0.03% 27.336 20.56% 0.980 0.65% 45.536 26.68% 0.389 0.23%
Increase/Decrease -0.023 -40.99% -0.245 -0.89% 0.074 8.17% -0.818 -1.76% 0.000 0.00%
Starting No. of Shares 0.056 27.581 0.906 46.354 0.389 reuters
118
46.000 26.96%
5.000 12.20%
41.000 Morningstar
Copyright 2008 Website of SPBrunner. All rights reserved.